Is Iraq a Civil War?

Somebody at the Corner (sorry, I don’t recall who) directed my attention to a thoughtful piece by Sergeant David A. Patten of the Third Infantry Division in Baghdad, who explores whether or not the violence in Iraq constitutes a “civil war.” You should take the time to read the rest, but here’s his conclusion:

There is no dispute about the dire situation in Iraq. Insurgents, militias, terrorists, and death squads are killing civilians at an alarming rate. Security forces are unreliable, and the Iraqi government is not meeting the needs of the people. Iraq is in a worse state than U.S. policymakers expected it would be three years ago.

However, it does not follow that Iraq is in a civil war. While the government is weak, there is no political force presenting it with a serious challenge. Iraq is, indeed, an unstable nation, but there is little danger of regime change, the ultimate purpose of a civil war. The armed groups most likely to participate in an eventual civil war lack both the capacity and the will to enter into such a conflict in earnest at the present time.

This does not mean that violence will decline; quite the contrary, as the referendum on the future status of the disputed city of Kirkuk nears, violence may increase. Nor does the central government appear able to consolidate power in the short term. Its inability to provide security and basic services will lead local officials, including unelected leaders of religious factions, to assume more power. But, in the long term, the central government will survive and take on a more significant role in keeping Iraq unified. For U.S. and coalition policymakers, assisting Iraq’s transition to democracy will require patience, diplomacy, and ingenuity.

However, unfounded concerns over a civil war erupting could prompt an overreaction from U.S. policymakers. Should they conclude that Iraq is in a civil war—even if they base their determination on political expediency and no clear criteria—the most likely response would be a demand for withdrawal. A premature withdrawal of coalition forces could motivate the Sunni Arab insurgency to unify behind a political program; Sunni Arab civilians would likely lose any remaining confidence in the security forces, and many more would flee their homes. The Jaysh al-Mahdi undeterred would expand its influence and become the government’s rival for the people’s loyalty. Premature withdrawal could lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy, creating the conditions for a civil war that do not currently exist.

A Democrat for Survival

As if signs of reemerging sanity in France weren’t unsettling enough, today ex-Senator Bob Kerrey, a committed Democrat, has an editorial in the Wall Street Journal standing for victory in Iraq. Read the whole thing, but here are some highlights:

– “Democracy cannot be imposed with military force.” What troubled me about this statement–a commonly heard criticism of U.S. involvement in Iraq–is that those who say such things seem to forget the good U.S. arms have done in imposing democracy on countries like Japan and Germany, or Bosnia more recently.”

– “As for Saddam, he had refused to comply with numerous U.N. Security Council resolutions outlining specific requirements related to disclosure of his weapons programs. He could have complied with the Security Council resolutions with the greatest of ease. He chose not to because he was stealing and extorting billions of dollars from the U.N. Oil for Food program.”

– “The critics who bother me the most are those who ordinarily would not be on the side of supporting dictatorships, who are arguing today that only military intervention can prevent the genocide of Darfur, or who argued yesterday for military intervention in Bosnia, Somalia and Rwanda to ease the sectarian violence that was tearing those places apart.

“Suppose we had not invaded Iraq and Hussein had been overthrown by Shiite and Kurdish insurgents. Suppose al Qaeda then undermined their new democracy and inflamed sectarian tensions to the same level of violence we are seeing today. Wouldn’t you expect the same people who are urging a unilateral and immediate withdrawal to be urging military intervention to end this carnage? I would.

“American liberals need to face these truths: The demand for self-government was and remains strong in Iraq despite all our mistakes and the violent efforts of al Qaeda, Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias to disrupt it. Al Qaeda in particular has targeted for abduction and murder those who are essential to a functioning democracy: school teachers, aid workers, private contractors working to rebuild Iraq’s infrastructure, police officers and anyone who cooperates with the Iraqi government. Much of Iraq’s middle class has fled the country in fear.

“With these facts on the scales, what does your conscience tell you to do? If the answer is nothing, that it is not our responsibility or that this is all about oil, then no wonder today we Democrats are not trusted with the reins of power. American lawmakers who are watching public opinion tell them to move away from Iraq as quickly as possible should remember this: Concessions will not work with either al Qaeda or other foreign fighters who will not rest until they have killed or driven into exile the last remaining Iraqi who favors democracy.

“The key question for Congress is whether or not Iraq has become the primary battleground against the same radical Islamists who declared war on the U.S. in the 1990s and who have carried out a series of terrorist operations including 9/11. The answer is emphatically ‘yes.’

“This does not mean that Saddam Hussein was responsible for 9/11; he was not. Nor does it mean that the war to overthrow him was justified–though I believe it was. It only means that a unilateral withdrawal from Iraq would hand Osama bin Laden a substantial psychological victory.”

– “We must not allow terrorist sanctuaries to develop any place on earth. Whether these fighters are finding refuge in Syria, Iran, Pakistan or elsewhere, we cannot afford diplomatic or political excuses to prevent us from using military force to eliminate them.”
Hat tip: The Corner

Domestic Terrorism Averted

“There is no terrorist threat,” Michael Moore told us. Well, big guy, what say you about this?

Six foreign-born Muslims were arrested and accused Tuesday of plotting to attack the Army’s Fort Dix and massacre scores of U.S. soldiers — a plot the FBI says was foiled when the men took a video of themselves firing assault weapons to a store to have the footage put onto a DVD.

The defendants, all men in their 20s from the former Yugoslavia and the Middle East, include a pizza deliveryman suspected of using his job to scout out the military base.

“Today we dodged a bullet. In fact, when you look at the type of weapons that this group was trying to purchase, we may have dodged a lot of bullets,” said FBI agent J.P. Weiss.

“We had a group that was forming a platoon to take on an army. They identified their target, they did their reconnaissance. They had maps. And they were in the process of buying weapons. Luckily, we were able to stop that.”

Authorities said there was no direct evidence connecting them to any international terror organizations such as Al Qaeda. But several of the men said they were ready to kill and die “in the name of Allah,” according to court records.

Their goal was “to kill as many American soldiers as possible” in attacks with mortars, rocket-propelled grenades and guns, prosecutors said.

Investigators said they infiltrated the group with an informant well over a year ago and bided their time while they secretly recorded the defendants, five of whom lived in Cherry Hill, a Philadelphia suburb about 20 miles from Fort Dix.

“This is what law enforcement is supposed to do in the post-9/11 era — stay one step ahead of those who are attempting to cause harm to innocent American citizens,” U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie said.

Weiss saluted the unidentified New Jersey store clerk who noticed the suspicious video as the “unsung hero” of the case. “That’s why we’re here today — because of the courage and heroism of that individual,” the FBI agent said.

In addition to plotting the attack on Fort Dix, the defendants spoke of attacking a Navy installation in Philadelphia during the annual Army-Navy football game, and conducted surveillance at other military installations in the region, prosecutors said.

One defendant, Eljvir Duka, was recorded as saying: “In the end, when it comes to defending your religion, when someone is trying attacks your religion, your way of life, then you go jihad.”

[…]

“It doesn’t matter to me whether I get locked up, arrested or get taken away,” another defendant, Serdar Tatar, was alleged to have said. “Or I die, it doesn’t matter. I’m doing it in the name of Allah.”

The men trained by playing paintball in the woods in New Jersey and taking target practice at a firing range in Pennsylvania’s Pocono Mountains, where they had rented a house, authorities said.

They often watched terror training videos, clips featuring Usama bin Laden, a tape containing the last will and testament of some of the Sept. 11 hijackers, and tapes of armed attacks on U.S. military personnel, erupting in laughter when one plotter noted that a Marine’s arm was blown off in an ambush, authorities said.

[…]

In court documents, prosecutors said the suspects came to the attention of authorities in January 2006 when a Mount Laurel, N.J., shopkeeper alerted the FBI about a “disturbing” video he had been asked to copy onto a DVD.

The video showed 10 young men in their early 20s “shooting assault weapons at a firing range … while calling for jihad and shouting in Arabic ‘Allah Akbar’ (God is great),” the complaint said. The 10 included six of those arrested, authorities said.

By March 2006, the group had been infiltrated by an informant who developed a relationship with Shnewer, and the informant secretly recorded meetings last August, according to court documents.

One of the suspects, Tatar, worked at his father’s pizzeria and made deliveries to the base, using that opportunity to scout out Fort Dix for an attack, authorities said.

“Clearly, one of the guys had an intimate knowledge of the base from having been there delivering pizzas,” Christie said.

The men also allegedly conducted surveillance at other area military installations, including Fort Monmouth in New Jersey, Dover Air Force Base in Delaware, and a Philadelphia Coast Guard station.

[…]

“If these people did something, then they deserve to be punished to the fullest extent of the law,” said Sohail Mohammed, a lawyer who represented scores of detainees after the 2001 attacks. “But when the government says ‘Islamic militants,’ it sends a message to the public that Islam and militancy are synonymous.”

Some thoughts:

1.) Thank God a desire to avoid “Islamophobia” cries didn’t prevent that shopkeeper from sounding the alarm! I can hear the PC-ers now: “Is it a crime for Muslims to play paintball? You racist!” If he had played by CAIR’s rules, the Fort Dix bloodbath would’ve had a far greater likelihood of success. It needs to be hammered home that liberal “sensitivity” is going to get people killed.

(Yes, I heard about the other shootings reported today. I remember Virginia Tech. There’s plenty of violence that’s not Islam-related, and obviously we have to be ever vigilant about suspicious activity in general. But the point is that we cannot let our desire to be inoffensive smother our survival instinct, and blind us to factors like religion that, yes Virginia, are relevant.)

2.) What if these idiots didn’t record anything in the first place, or weren’t so careless with their words at the shooting range? It’s scary to think this might not have been preventable, and even scarier to consider how sophisticated their planning was, even without al-Qaeda training (if there wasn’t…). Another reason why we have to confront not just terrorist groups, but the ideology of jihad head-on.

3.) A couple of these guys were reportedly in the US illegally—a dire problem on which both parties are MIA.

In the Corner Mark Krikorian has more concerns, while Cliff May sees a hopeful sign. Go read ‘em both.

Sacre Bleu!

Impossible though it may seem, France’s next president, Nicolas Sarkozy, A.) isn’t a socialist and B.) doesn’t hate America. Maybe Europe has a will to survive after all…

Although I’m delighted by this latest development, I must confess that I’m a little worried: If they keep this up, just think of all the France jokes
we’ll have to retire!

The NRA Goes Off Track

Y’know, I’m a pro-gun guy who thinks the National Rifle Association has done a lot of good for this country. But somebody should tell them not to waste time like this:

The National Rifle Association is urging the Bush administration to withdraw its support of a bill that would prohibit suspected terrorists from buying firearms.

Backed by the Justice Department, the measure would give the attorney general the discretion to block gun sales, licenses or permits to terror suspects.

In a letter this week to Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, NRA executive director Chris Cox said the bill, offered last week by Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J., “would allow arbitrary denial of Second Amendment rights based on mere ‘suspicions’ of a terrorist threat.”


I’ve only skimmed
the bill, but I’ve gotta say that nothing in it bothered me. Could the power be misused in the wrong hands? Sure, but the same can be said of any government power. I’d file this one under “We’re at war; get over it.” (If anybody can show me what I’m not seeing, go for it.)

Just a Bit of Perspective

I’m among the last guys on Earth to give the Iraq War’s mismanagement a pass, but for what it’s worth, I think this needs to be said: Right now I’m watching Bill O’Reilly interview an ex-Iraqi ambassador – who happens to be a woman. That’s right; a woman in a position of real power in an Arab government, and it wouldn’t have happened if not for George W. Bush. With so much we’ve promised the Iraqi people, and so much hanging in the balance, we cannot abandon this cause.

Terror Warrior?

Rudy Giuliani should be forgiven for his social liberalism and elected president because he’ll fight an aggressive War on Terror—or so we’re told. Now, even that is questionable:

[I]n discussing the deployment of more troops, Mr. Giuliani has been alone in saying that such a strategy may not succeed, potentially providing him cover should the situation in Iraq deteriorate further. And he has put the strategy in a broader context that plays down the importance of Iraq.

Terrorists “are going to continue to be at war with us, no matter what the outcome in Iraq,” Mr. Giuliani said recently in New Hampshire. The night before, he said that “there are no sure things,” and that if the United States fails in Iraq, “we have to be ready for that, too.” In California a few days later, speaking of “the danger of focusing on Iraq too much,” he said that complete success there would not win the fight against terrorism, and that failure there would not lose it.

I’ve been trying to figure out the why Rudy’s terror rhetoric is so underwhelming yet so appealing to people, and the other night it hit me: it’s nothing the average talk-radio listener off the street couldn’t repeat back to you. “Terrorists will come here…war whether we want it or not…the president has acknowledged mistakes…” which is true enough as far as it goes, but that’s about as specific as America’s Mayor gets (
listen for his answer as to what mistakes we made in Iraq…hint: it ain’t there).

Man, this house of cards is seriously overdue for a nice, strong gust of wind…

Life in Bush’s Amerika of Fear – or – CAIR Needs to Get a Life

The horror continues:

Two hours before the Islamic Center of Clarksville held its 1 p.m. Friday prayer service, called Jummah, a Quran was found vandalized on the front steps.

The front of the Quran, Islam’s holy book, read “Mohammad pedophile” while an expletive was written inside, smeared under two strips of bacon, according to a Clarksville Police report. The report labeled the incident a hate crime.

The bacon strips are offensive to Muslims because they are forbidden from eating pork.

Apparently, CAIR
wants the FBI to investigate the case. Last time I checked, the feds were kinda busy with that whole “global movement of Islamic fanatics trying to kill people en masse” thing. I’d rather they didn’t make detours for every vandalism case that comes their way.

Why Democrats Can’t Be Trusted to Protect You

The laundry list keeps growing…

ITEM 1:
Pelosi Shills for Syrian Despot

The Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi recently met with Syrian President Bashar Assad, and is wasting no time in parroting his line: “We were very pleased with the assurances we received from the president that he was ready to resume the peace process. He’s ready to engage in negotiations for peace with Israel.” And by the way, the trip is
legal grounding for Pelosi’s impeachment (or, if the Bush Administration had threatened to stop her, even imprisonment). Not that our current crop of “leaders” will stand up to her.

ITEM 2:
House Dems Vote to Allow Intimidation of US Citizens in Favor of Muslim Pressure Groups

In response to the
lying imams’ desired lawsuit against the terrified passengers who reported their suspicious conduct, Rep. Peter King offered a proposal to protect those who report potential terrorist activity from legal action. Though it passed the House, more than half of the Democrats voted against it—and surely there are more than a few liberals waiting to follow suit once it gets to the Senate.

Outrageous, yet all-too common these days.

Moonbats and Military Service

An eloquent, thoughtful fellow named “Anonymous” has just left this pearl of wisdom on the same-sex marriage article I recently posted:

“Hey hotshot. You’re such a flag-waving, “God-Bless-America’ing, Bush-loving, war-supporting, sabre-rattling 19-year-old, why haven’t you joined the armed forces yet? Put that money where that mouth is, chicken-boy. College indeed!”

I’d actually like to thank our mysterious friend for his comment, because it helps me illustrate just how loony the Left can get without having to sift through the moonbat mud that is the Daily Kos.

First: Notice how the comment has nothing to do with the topic? I guess we’re just in a bitter mood and feel the need to vent about it.

Second: I assume that each “ing” he attributes to me denotes a particular trait he finds objectionable. Sadly, he hasn’t articulated exactly what is objectionable about each of them. Folks, if you expect to be taken seriously in life, coherency is key.

Third: Bush-loving? It’s true that I’ve
defended the president when justified, but I haven’t been a stranger to blasting him, and on several occasions. It’s too bad that the Left so often doesn’t bother to look for background to support what they’re talking about.

Fourth: This is a good opportunity to address one of the Left’s most common propaganda tactics: This oft-parroted line, that if you’re not a soldier you aren’t entitled to have an opinion favorable to military action, needs to be challenged. For one thing, whether or not somebody serves says nothing about whether or not his positions are right. Oliver North, John McCain & Sam Johnson view the Iraq War in a fundamentally-different way than do John Kerry, Jack Murtha & Max Cleland. They’re all military veterans, yet they obviously can’t all be correct.

So why haven’t I joined the military? Simple: like many Americans, I don’t have what it takes. I freely admit that. The fact that I’m not serving my country in uniform is one of the reasons why I’ve dedicated myself to saving America another way: by using my particular God-given strengths—writing, debate, commentary, etc.—to the fight against internal threats to our nation’s survival. I’m proud of what I do here on CFO, in the Reporter’s opinion pages, and elsewhere, but I have never made an attempt to present my work as anything more than what it is. I will always stand in awe of the true heroes willing to trek halfway across the world, endure grueling conditions away from their families, and risk death & suffering to keep us safe & free.

I do not know of a single conservative who views such sacrifice lightly. I certainly don’t—several friends of mine have enlisted (or will enlist), and the possibility that they might die in combat someday scares me to death. But I look at my friends and neighbors, my parents and family, and the possibility of their murder scares me to death, too. I don’t want my little goddaughters or my future children to inherit a world where madmen can slaughter whomever they deem religious heretics with reckless abandon—
which is exactly what happened on a Tuesday morning six years ago.

So while the bravest of our society fight the War on Terror, I’ll keep on fighting the War of Public Opinion. You think I’m wrong? Fine. Show me where. But if you think I’m going to apologize for what I believe, or for doing my (relatively small, admittedly) part for America’s survival, think again.